Caffeinated Thoughts

Doubting Sarah Palin’s Favorability Decline in The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll
Boehner and Cantor Indicate That the House Will Do Obama’s Job Defending DOMA
Newt Gingrich Joins Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition Presidential Forum Speaker Line-up

Doubting Sarah Palin’s Favorability Decline in The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll

Posted: 28 Feb 2011 06:30 PM PST

Sarah Palin's favorability ratings are slipping! Her favorability ratings are slipping! That's what you hear from The Des Moines Register today in their latest release of the Iowa Poll.

Tom Beaumont reports a drop from 71% to 65% in the last 15 months.

Three problems with this poll and story.

The sample size – 189 people. Not exactly the standard used in scientific polls.
The margin of error of 7.1% +/- since the decline falls within the margin of error.
Josh Painter points out that Beaumont fails to mention the last time this was polled was actually back in June. Her favorability rating then was 58% with a 4.4% +/- margin of error. So her favorability has actually increased by 6 points since June.

Why not report that?

The thrust of Beaumont's article seems to have more to do with a lack of political activity in Iowa:

However, Palin has done very little to cultivate political good will in a state where face-to-face meetings with influential activists, officials and organizers are common. Palin held no private political meetings during any of her four visits. She met briefly with about 50 influential Republican officials and donors during a reception before the fundraiser she headlined in September, but did not discuss mounting an Iowa campaign.

Some Iowa Republicans have said privately they do not expect Palin to run, considering her low profile in the state.

A reason for the dimmed enthusiasm for Palin could be her national exposure combined with her lack of Iowa activity, Geller said.

“She hasn’t been active in the state. And Iowans have that expectation and a feeling of responsibility to see these people up close,” Geller said. “But it might also be a little Sarah Palin fatigue. They are familiar with her and yet they are not necessarily embracing her. Sixty-five percent is not a very high favorable rating.”

But it isn't a bad favorability rating either. I agree that if she runs she needs to come to the state, however there are a number of prospective candidates who have not spent much time here…. yet. I also suspect that her favorability rating will go up if she does start campaigning her because she is extremely good at retail politicking.

As far as the "some Iowa Republicans" who have said privately they don't expect her to run based on fewer visits to Iowa. So what? Frankly I don't give much credence to people who can't attach their names to comments made. It seems like political backbiting from people who support other candidates. She may not run, but so far we are off to a slow start. She has made a few visits, but she isn't camped out here. There has been some outreach done, but not a ton yet. You can't quite compare her activity to Rick Santorum's or Tim Pawlenty's for instance because she does have more name recognition, media exposure, and still has a lot of grassroots support. Her campaign and candidacy will look different, but that doesn't mean none of the rules apply

I still think she needs to participate in the Iowa Straw Poll and not wait too much longer, but I'm not writing off a candidacy yet. It's too early especially since no one has formally announced yet.

Anyway putting forth a narrative that her favorability is in decline based on the problems inherit with the poll and story seems to be to be a bunch of spin.

Photo by Dave Davidson

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Boehner and Cantor Indicate That the House Will Do Obama’s Job Defending DOMA

Posted: 28 Feb 2011 05:15 PM PST

Both House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) indicated that the House of Representatives will pick up the ball that the Obama administration dropped on DOMA.

Speaker Boehner in an interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network's David Brody said:

I'm really disappointed in the President and the Department of Justice in the fact that they're not going to defend a law that Congress passed overwhelmingly. It's their responsibility to do that. Now, it's happened before where administrations have decided they weren't going to go out and vigorously defend a law that Congress passed but I really am disappointed in the President in his actions but if the President won't lead, if the President won't defend DOMA then you'll see the House of Representatives defend our actions in passing a bill that frankly passed overwhelmingly.

Cantor in a press conference today said:

Again I do believe that this is a case that is distinguishable on its merits and to have the administration take the position, the president take the position, that he's not defending the law of the land, is something very troubling I think to most members of the House

He said the House would outline its plans on Friday.

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Newt Gingrich Joins Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition Presidential Forum Speaker Line-up

Posted: 28 Feb 2011 04:00 PM PST

West Des Moines, IA – Despite the slow start to the 2012 presidential caucus season in the state, the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition seems to be cutting through the fog with their annual Spring Kickoff event. The event has already begun to garner national media interest for its role in the 2012 Iowa Caucuses and expected turnout is on the rise.

As a result, the group has added an additional name to their line-up of speakers as they close in on Monday, March 7^th event. The event is now set to feature five individuals that have been billed as potential presidential candidates heading into the 2012 Iowa Caucuses. Those candidates are former CEO of Godfathers Pizza Herman Cain, former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and the recent addition of former Speaker of the U.S. House Newt Gingrich. This collection of speakers marks the first event of its kind in the 2012 race with multiple potential candidates sharing the same stage. A similar event is not likely to be seen this spring.

Other distinguished guests expected to attend the event include conservative Congressman Steve King, Governor Terry Branstad and Lt. Governor Kim Reynolds and the president of the national Faith & Freedom coalition and Fox News contributor Ralph Reed.

The event is set to be held at Point of Grace Church in Waukee, IA from 5:30-7:30pm on Monday, March 7^th.

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