sâmbătă, 19 martie 2011

Caffeinated Thoughts

Caffeinated Thoughts


Early & Incomplete Iowa Caucus Poll: Mike Huckabee Leads, Sarah Palin Strong Despite Absence in Iowa

Posted: 19 Mar 2011 01:00 AM PDT


I've been focused on other things this week, but now that we've reached the weekend I thought I'd share some thoughts on the latest Iowa Caucus poll by We Ask America.  885 likely Republican caucus voters were asked if the Iowa Caucus were held today who would you vote imagefor?  The results:

  1. Mike Huckabee – 20.23%
  2. Sarah Palin – 14.12%
  3. Newt Gingrich – 13.90%
  4. Mitt Romney – 13.33%
  5. Donald Trump – 9.04%
  6. Ron Paul – 4.52%
  7. Tim Pawlenty – 3.50%
  8. Haley Barbour – 2.60%
  9. Mitch Daniels – 1.81%

6.10% listed "other" and 10.85% said they were undecided.  The margin of error is +/-3.29%  Some observations…

  • I have no reason to doubt the outcome of the poll based on the sample size, they could be accused of oversampling though.  I would also like to know the percentages of participants by gender, age, and even geographical area in Iowa.
  • I'm not surprised that Governor Huckabee is leading, and it does show that he still has a strong base.  Looking at the percentage breakdown by gender and age, Huckabee leads women with 23.09% which gave him his largest margin of 9 points with Mitt Romney coming in with 2nd among women with 14.13%  Huckabee leads men by a smaller margin of of less than 2 points at 17.13% with Sarah Palin coming in 2nd with 15.72%.  I don't know the exact breakdown of female Republicans to male Republicans, but I believe males outnumber females among registered Republicans.  I'll try to verify that, but hard to do on the weekend.  Huckabee also leads among 25-34 year-olds (by a larger margin), 55-65 year-olds (by only 2 points), and 65+ with 23.67%.
  • Even though some don't want to get serious about Sarah Palin she comes in 2nd with 14 points in a crowded field.  She leads 35-44 year-olds with 20.83% and 45-54 year-olds with 21.74%.  She trails Huckabee by 2 points among 55-64 year-olds.  The 35-64 age range among is your base among Republican caucus goers.  In 2008, exit polling showed only 12% of caucus goers were under the age of 30 whereas 50% were in the 30-59 age range.  Considering she hasn't been in Iowa much this also shows that she does have a base to draw from.  If she gets in the race there is potential to build.
  • I find it odd that Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain and Rick Santorum were not included in this poll, but Donald Trump was.  Some of their supporters could make up the "other" category, but out of sight (or ear), out of mind for some.  I'm sure that skewed this poll, but in whose favor is anyone's guess.
  • Regardless of how many online polls Ron Paul wins he just doesn't poll well in scientific polls, even among 18-24 year-olds, he only pulled just north of 5%.
  • Even with a crowed social conservative line-up, Mitt Romney is just fourth.  This time in 2007 he was leading the pack.  This obviously doesn't bode well for him.
  • Haley Barbour pulls in 20% of 18-24 year-old vote… I'm not sure why that is.  Strange.
  • With almost 11% undecided with a crowded field is a pretty good size percentage.  Also if Huckabee or Palin (or both) decide not to run there will be a vacuum – who will fill it?
  • I'm surprised that Pawlenty didn't poll better the visits he has made to Iowa and the organization he has behind him.
  • This poll affirms my believe that if Mitch Daniels gets in his candidacy will go nowhere in Iowa.
  • Gingrich finds himself in a solid position as well… his status will largely depend, I believe, how well received he is among evangelicals who may be leery of his personal history.

Anyway, this poll is early and incomplete so it would be best to take it with a grain of salt.  It would be extremely interesting to know who are likely voters 2nd choice.

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Bomb Thrown at Pro-Life Prayer Vigil: Thomas More Society Files Anti-Terrorism Complaint with FBI

Posted: 18 Mar 2011 02:30 PM PDT


image(Christian Newswire) The Thomas More Society, acting on behalf of 40 Days for Life, a national campaign that sponsors peaceable pro-life prayer vigils outside abortion provider sites world-wide, has filed a formal complaint with the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Field Office in Helena, Montana. The Thomas More Society is calling for an immediate, intensive investigation of a vicious fire-bombing attack on a pro-lifer that occurred March 17, 2011 at around 6:15 p.m. near the All Family Health Care abortion center in Kalispell, Montana.

Karen Trierweiler, coordinator of the 40 Days prayer vigils in Kalispell, said that a homemade incendiary device was thrown at one of the vigil participants, an elderly retired woman, by an assailant — as yet unidentified — as she walked on the public sidewalk near the abortion provider’s premises. The victim did not see the bomb-thrower, nor did she see the bomb — akin to a "Molotov cocktail" — before it exploded on the sidewalk behind her, making a loud popping noise like a big firecracker as it burst into flame. Apparently the victim was unhurt.

Regaining her composure, the victim called Ms. Trierweiler to the scene, and she called the police. After a lengthy delay, a Kalispell police officer arrived. But instead of inspecting the bomb debris or calling evidence technicians to the scene, the officer remarked that police could never get prints or other evidence from the bomb’s remains, and that he would call the city’s garbage service to dispose of all the debris. Then he said that the 40 Days prayer vigil participants should expect this kind of reaction if they’re out there protesting. Questioning Officer Hoover’s assessment of the attack, Ms. Trierweiler called the Kalispell desk sergeant to complain, where she was unable to get further assistance.

Tom Brejcha, president and chief counsel of the Thomas More Society, said, "We are appalled by this terrible act of violence, while we’re immensely grateful that God’s grace spared this valiant pro-lifer any serious injury. But the reaction of Kalispell police officers after Ms. Trierweiler called them to the scene was equally appalling, indeed outrageous. We intend to file disciplinary complaints against both the officer who came to the crime scene and the desk sergeant whose tepid, indifferent, and grossly unprofessional response to this blatant act of domestic terrorism shows them both unfit to wear a police uniform and at best deserving of severe disciplinary action. We expect much better from the FBI and we will pursue the matter to the very highest levels of the U.S. Department of Justice if this case is not investigated promptly and vigorously and — once the assailant is identified and apprehended — prosecuted to the hilt," Brejcha concluded.

Ms. Trierweiler also reported that an eyewitness has stepped forward, who was not part of the 40 Days campaign but rather a passerby, who saw the incident occur and who may be able to help the FBI track down the bomb thrower and bring him to justice.

Kalispell, Montana is a small town in the far northwestern part of the state that boasts an airport servicing jet air traffic as it is the western gateway to the famed Glacier National Park, which straddles the U.S.-Canadian border.

Founded in 1997, the Thomas More Society is a national public interest law firm that exists to restore respect for life in law. Based in Chicago, the Thomas More Society defends the sanctity of human life, the family and religious liberty in courtrooms across the country. The Society is a nonprofit organization wholly supported by private donations. For more information or to support the work of Thomas More Society, please visit www.thomasmoresociety.org.

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Striking a Nerve with “A Tale of Two Teachers”

Posted: 18 Mar 2011 10:45 AM PDT


By State Senator Paul McKinley

It's safe to say I struck a nerve.

Last week, I published a memo entitled, "A Tale of Two Teachers."  The response was extraordinary.

In that memo, I presented a true-to-life scenario and contrasted a hypothetical "Teacher A" and "Teacher B".

In doing so, I laid out a compelling case why student achievement must again become the focal point of education and urged teachers to rescue their noble profession from the union bosses who currently wield far too much control.

I said it is time to reward teachers based on whether their kids are learning rather than by tenure or credentials bargained for by union bosses. We said it was time and remove teachers from the classrooms who are not performing and put the focus back on classroom teachers (and that includes music, drama and art teachers) by eliminating positions not directly focused on student achievement.

Hundreds of Iowans of all ages, from all corners of the state and from all backgrounds wrote back with some incredible perspectives.

Chief among them were the dozens of responses from teachers and other educational professionals who agreed wholeheartedly with our vision. However, there were a few that took issue with my points as well.

Here is just a small sample of the responses I received:

"We really appreciate what you and your colleagues are doing in government.  Please stick to your guns.  Unions need to be a part of the solution and not the problem.  Teacher A should be rewarded and Teacher B could be counseled and perhaps laid off if there is no change.  But the Unions have way too much power"

"Why should they be any different than any other employee? If an employee in the private sector does not show growth in their field normally they would not be rewarded for that. Teacher A’s will be leaving the state of Iowa to pursue the state that does offer the reward system for doing their job correctly."

"As a former teacher in a private school, I could not agree with you anymore. It is time we get back to the basics of education.  When I was volunteering in the prison system, teaching math classes to inmates, I was often met with comments such as, "I never turned in a single paper beyond third grade."

"That was an excellent piece you wrote contrasting Teacher A and Teacher B. I was a teacher for 31 years in Iowa. Once again a great read with your hammer hitting the nail square on the head! I’m the teacher watching the others march out the door the minute they can!"

"Thanks for the letter. As school board member, I have the same opinion. We enter into negotiations tonight with our union."
"That was one of the biggest crocks o’shite I have ever seen from an Iowa legislator. Keep your useless claptrap out of my mail box. You wouldn’t know a good from a bad educator if one snuck into your house and skrooed your pig."

"As a former high school and middle school principal, I believe you have touched the surface of the preverbal iceberg with your candid take on our "issues."  I have had the opportunity to step back for the past year and a half from education and look in from another perspective; that of just a parent.  To cut directly to the chase, your observations are accurate, and there is more to it than you even touched upon regarding why our students are so far behind or just stagnating."

"Great memo. (Tale of two teachers.) I agree with every thought conveyed. You have a great understanding of the problem.  I know you will work hard for a solution."

"I spent my life as a junior high/middle school teacher…I belonged to the NEA/ISEA…for some years and after getting into it with several local union presidents over union policy and political leanings, left that union. I took early retirement in part because I became tired of the "death by a thousand paper cuts" political atmosphere prevalent in the public school environment."

"Absolutely- I am 100% supportive of this movement….and good teachers should also be supportive of this.  Really hope Iowa will see the light on this issue…keep it up. Signed, A mother of 2, soon to be 3, who will be entering the school system next year and a student of some really bad teachers, who are sadly still teaching today."

"Very true, education does not promote our/reward our best. Will be interesting to see how things move forward."

"I’m no fan of poor teachers, but in the past few years have been on the receiving end of bad legislation and poor management of the State of Iowa." 

"Being an educator that does work longer hours than required and cares about my students' education, I respect your article."

"Thank you so much and hopefully more people will realize that unions had their place years ago but now they are fighting so employees can call in sick whenever they want and not meet standards that should be meant in order to retain a job. I appreciate you and the others for fighting for us taxpayers."

"I agree…the Iowa education system needs to be reformed.  REWARD teachers who perform and FIRE teachers who don’t.  Treat it like the private sector.  Get rid of some of the administrators.  We have a lot of school principals just collecting a pay check.  Good luck with getting the teachers union to change!"

" I am a 27 year old graduate student at Iowa State University.  I earned my bachelor’s degree in Biology and secondary education from ISU in 2007.  For the 2 1/2 years between my undergrad and starting graduate school I taught biology (in an Iowa high school). Probably the most frustrating part of my experience was when the budget cuts came last year and resulted in teacher layoffs.  I was told by many staff members that I was "on the bubble" of getting fired because I was such a new teacher (only 2 1/2 years experience)."

"Writing this note to you is the first official act of my spring break. I am a licensed teacher in this great state of Iowa.  I kept all three of my children home and educated them with the very best educational materials I could get my hands on. During high school they were shining examples of what can be done when LEARNING is the chief focus of the day, not entertainment.  Both of our sons became pilots in high school and one spent the last semester of high school teaching character skills in public schools of Moscow Russia!" 

"The reason hypothetical teacher B still teaches is not because of union bosses. The reason is because teacher B is a successful coach.  The school board can't mess with that! Your assumptions about union bosses is bull ****."

"Amen to this article! I would recommend a teacher evaluation system using a 4-year rolling average on student standardized testing. That way one exceptionally bad or good year would not hugely affect the average.  Also, teachers would have to plan for a longer time frame, not just the next trimester. WE NEED IT.  I agree totally with your article. Good luck against the teacher’s union."

"Keep up the fight.  We have needed merit pay for years.  A former school board member, we had to fire a poor teacher and it took 2 years of documentation and records to get it done because of the teachers union. Very costly."

"We have been hearing for years how underpaid Iowa teachers are compared to other states, etc. etc.  But it seems few people, if any, ask why Iowa teachers should be paid the same as teachers who live in areas where the cost of living is very much higher than in Iowa.  For example, the cost of living in large metropolitan areas is certainly much higher than in rural Iowa or even in Des Moines.  Yet we are asked to pay comparable salaries."

"So, is poly-tics any different ?  How many bills will be passed this session ?  How many is that per month ?  How has the legislation answered to the voters….. yeah I thought so."

"You forgot to mention that teacher B hands the students worksheets while she/he plays solitaire on the computer. And where are the administrators who are supposed to be putting a stop to all of this and helping teacher B improve or move on? I don’t think the public believes these things really happen, but they do. Hang in there."

"This is something I have been talking about to for a long time.  I have seen it growing up with myself, my children, and now with my grandchildren.  I know many teachers, some good ones and ones that just use it as a 9 to 5 job with no extra effort, sometimes beating the children home, but are rewarded the as the ones that put in the extra effort.  I agree that the better teachers need to be rewarded for their extra effort and ones not doing their job not.  I do support what you are trying to do!  Some of my grandchildren attend a private Catholic school and things are handled differently. Thanks for your concern, our children are the future."
"Thanks for this letter.  I am going to give it to my wife, teacher A, and hear her response.  I believe that you are right on target.  Our state employees need to pay for their medical benefits.  Keep up the good work."

"Amen. Preaching to the choir here. My wife is teacher A. Thank goodness Iowa is a right to work state and she can opt out of the union!!!  I believe if hard working teachers are not rewarded, our education system will continue to get worse. Ultimately making our kids, our state, and our country noncompetitive. Our children deserve better!"

Clearly, reforming our education system is one that Iowans care deeply about.  We have a fantastic heritage in education and we must return to our roots in order to once again lead the state forward.

Senate Republicans pledge to continue to bring about common sense reforms. We would be doing our children and grandchildren a great disservice if we did not continue to work hard on their behalf.

State Senator Paul McKinley (R-Chariton) is the Iowa Senate Minority Leader

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Late Term Abortion Ban (HF 5) Passes Out of Iowa House Subcommittee

Posted: 18 Mar 2011 09:30 AM PDT


HF 5, which would ban abortions after 20 weeks based on scientific evidence that unborn children feel intense pain, has passed out of a subcommittee of the Iowa House Government Oversight Committee yesterday.  The panel made of of State Representatives Chris Hagenow (R-Windsor Heights), Chip Baltimore (R-Boone) and Janet Petersen (D-Des Moines) voted 2-1 with Petersen voting against the bill.

The bill was moved to this committee from the House Judiciary Committee as it was held up by two Republican legislators, State Representatives Glen Massie (R-Des Moines) and Kim Pearson (R-Pleasant Hill) said they don't favor the bill because it doesn't protect children from conception.  They released a statement yesterday, along with State Representative Tom Shaw (R-Laurens) reiterating their opposition to the bill:

HF 5 does not protect innocent life from conception. This violates Article 1 of Iowa's Constitution and we do not have the authority to legislate away an inalienable right. We do not support HF 5.

This moves HF 5 to the full Government Oversight Committee which is scheduled to take up the bill Wednesday next week.  Republicans hold a 6-3 majority on the committee, and even with Pearson being on the committee, it should pass this bill out of committee where it will likely pass in the House.

This came the day after there was a joint press conference held by various pro-life groups around the state, with the exception of The FAMiLY Leader which is still registered as undecided on this bill and has done nothing to assist in moving it forward.  The groups represented at the press conference on Wednesday: Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition, Iowans for Life, Iowa Catholic Conference, Council Bluffs Interfaith Coalition to Keep Carhart Out, Concerned Women for America – Iowa, and Iowa Right to Life are committed to supporting all prolife legislation before the Iowa House and Senate.

My position on this bill has been consistent, I stand with the majority of prolife Iowans who want to see this bill passed.  I understand Massie, Pearson and Shaw's position, but I believe they are wrong about the impact of HF 5.   Simply put, this does not codify abortion before 20 weeks – it is already codified!  What this does do is protect babies 20 weeks into the pregnancy.  Status quo on this favors the abortion industry and will lead to Dr. Leroy Carhart setting up shop in Iowa and the death of more preborn children.  There is a reason Planned Parenthood and other pro-abortion groups are against this bill – because it advances the prolife cause.  This isn't a time to debate philosophy as there are life and death implications here and this bill is responding to a real threat.   I, as well as prolife groups in Iowa also support the personhood bill and will continue to fight until all preborn children are protected.  We won't however set bills like HF 5 aside as we do this.

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