Caffeinated Thoughts

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 06:32 PM PST

The ad below is being released statewide by Rick Santorum's campaign in Nevada and Colorado. This has to be the first negative ad he has run, and this targets Newt Gingrich. Maybe he's getting sick of Newt telling him to leave the race. Gingrich didn't seem to be concerned about unifying the conservative vote in Iowa or New Hampshire… hmmm… Interesting to note that both Santorum and Paul fare better in head to head matchups with Obama I'd think Santorum would be wise to mention this over and over and over again.

Here's the ad below:

Here is the text of the ad below:

Voice Over:

On the other sides of these cards are the picture of three politicians.

Here’s some clues as to who they are.

All three supported radical cap and trade legislation that would destroy American jobs and drive up energy costs.

All three supported giving illegal aliens some form of amnesty.

All three sported the government health mandates which take away our freedom and is the core of Obamacare.

And all three of these politician’s supported the Wall Street bailouts that was a slap in the face to the Tea Party.

Who are these three Cap and Trade lovin, bailout supporting, soft of immigration, big government mandating politicians? ….Now you know.

Rick Santorum for President, he doesn’t just talk a good conservative game, he lives it.

Rick Santorum: I’m Rick Santorum and I approve this message

This is a pretty effective ad, but pretty tame compared to the ones Romney and Paul have run against Gingrich and tamer than what Gingrich has been doing to Romney. Unlike some of their negative ads this is completely factual.

Photo by Dave Davidson – Prezography.com

Santorum unloads on Gingrich in Nevada (gop12.thehill.com)
Michelle Malkin Endorses Rick Santorum (spectator.org)
Santorum: I’m not calling for anyone to get out; we’ll beat them straight up (hotair.com)
Gingrich and Santorum: We’re in it for the long haul (washingtonpost.com)
Santorum has $1.1 million in bank for GOP campaign (philly.com)

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Looking Past Florida Romney May Be In Trouble

Posted: 31 Jan 2012 05:15 PM PST

I decided not to do a live chat during the Florida primary results. I decided it was a waste of time. First off I can't help but be irritated with them because of the mess they made of the primary calendar. I mean the Iowa Caucus wouldn't have even happened yet. Secondly, Mitt Romney's was a lock for the state so it’s been a boring evening. The last polls in Florida just closed 24 minutes ago and he’s already declared the winner, and he outspent Newt Gingrich by $12 million.

What I find interesting is what's ahead. Public Policy Polling had some interesting results after polling Missouri and Ohio:

Rick Santorum is leading the way for next week’s ‘beauty contest’ primary in Missouri with 45% to 34% for Romney, and 13% for Ron Paul. Newt Gingrich is not on the ballot for that, but he will be in the picture for Missouri’s caucus and leads the way for that with 30% to 28% for Santorum, 24% for Romney, and 11% for Paul.

In Ohio Gingrich is at 26% to 25% for Romney, 22% for Santorum, and 11% for Paul.

What might be most interesting in both states is what happens in a head to head between Romney and either Gingrich or Santorum:

-In Missouri Santorum leads Romney 50-37 and in Ohio Santorum leads 45-38.

-In Missouri Gingrich leads Romney 43-42 and in Ohio Gingrich leads 42-39.

Two takeaways from those numbers: if this ever came down to Romney, Paul, and just one out of Gingrich and Santorum, Romney would be in a lot of trouble. And he’d be in more trouble if the single conservative alternative ended up being Santorum.

Santorum is a stronger long term threat to Romney than Gingrich because he has less baggage and is simply much better liked. Santorum is easily the most popular of the Republican candidates in both Missouri (+42 favorability at 63/21, compared to +20 for Gingrich and +10 for Romney) and Ohio (+35 at 59/24 compared to +10 for both Gingrich and Romney). It’s just proving hard for Santorum to get much traction while Gingrich is still in the race.

Looking at other February contests, there hasn't really been any real recent polling… the only two other states have had polling done in February. Things don't look good for Romney in Minnesota where he is down by 18 points to Gingrich in a Public Policy Poll there. Romney is only up by 5 points to Gingrich in Michigan in a EPIC-MRA poll. This is the state where his dad was the Governor. So even though Romney will win Florida tonight this is far from being a lock.

Photo by Dave Davidson – Prezography.com