Caffeinated Thoughts |
- Why the Romney Needs to Be Inevitable Now
- Rick Santorum’s Polling in Pennsylvania
- Rand Paul to Keynote Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition Spring Event
- Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli to Headline Iowa GOP Reagan Dinner
- Biden’s Trip to Iowa Only Reminds Us of Broken Promises
- Hot Topic: Trayvon Martin
| Why the Romney Needs to Be Inevitable Now Posted: 28 Mar 2012 11:40 PM PDT Mitt Romney wants to be inevitable. Mitt Romney’s supporters are pushing the inevitability meme right now in hopes that Wisconsin voters agree because the dangers of a Wisconsin loss are critical. While the two most recent polls have shown Romney with a lead, these two surveys seem to not reflect the rural nature of Wisconsin Republican Politics who made up 41% of the Republcian electorate in 2008 (compare to a 23% rural vote in Ohio this year) and rural voters have been far more likely to support Senator Santorum. If Santorum wins Wisconsin, Romney faces a far more difficult road ahead the rest of the primary schedule. The odds of Santorum losing Pennsylvania on April 24th will go down dramatically allowing Santorum to play more aggressively in other contests. Santorum could challenge Romney in Delaware, which borders Pennsylvania. In addition, Santorum is more likely to aggressively compete in Western New York State to both win Congressional Districts and hold Romney under 50% of the vote so that the Empire State divides its 34 at-large delegates proportionally. Romney should easily carry Connecticut and Rhode Island, likely taking all of Connecticut’s delegates and earning ten or eleven of Rhode Island’s sixteen convention delegate. However when Romney turns the calendar for the month of May, he’ll run into a slew of states that are custom made for Rick Santorum: Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Texas. The only state likely to vote for Romney under this scenario is Oregon, which holds a vote by mail proportional primary that concludes on May 15th. Heading to June 5th where five states including California and New Jersey vote, Romney would be reeling. On the other hand, should Santorum lose Wisconsin, the complexion of the race would likely change. Santorum would be forced to spend much of the rest of the month of April playing defense in Pennsylvania and allow Romney to make bigger gains everywhere. Romney will, of course, hope to defeat Santorum in his home state and effectively end the race. If that fails and Romney wins every contest in the month of April, the inevitability narrative will gain steam and some states that would have been sure bets to vote for Santorum otherwise may vote for Romney just as the State of Texas voted for John McCain over Mike Huckabee in 2008. Of course, it’s still possible that many of these May states could still go for Santorum just as the trio of Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri surprised voters after Romney’s victories in Florida and Nevada made him “inevitable.” However, it’s far less likely with a Santorum loss in Wisconsin, particularly if it’s followed up by a poor performance on April 24th outside of Pennsylvania. Much conversation has centered around on what Wisconsin means for Santorum. However, for Romney, Wisconsin is even bigger. It will answer the question of whether his White House bid is inevitable or in trouble. Link to this post!        |
| Rick Santorum’s Polling in Pennsylvania Posted: 28 Mar 2012 08:45 PM PDT
The previous Franklin & Marshall poll was done in February. In it Santorum led the field with 45 points to Romney's 16 points. Gingrich had 9 points to Paul's 7. So between February to March according to Franklin & Marshall Santorum's lead was cut by 27 points. Santorum lost 15 points, and Romney gained 12. I find it interesting that the undecided category grew by 2%. Gingrich lost 3 points… so I would imagine some ended up there. Here's what I think is happening, so let's not get all excited over one poll. For starters I question whether Santorum ever really lead by 29 points. That was one poll. The other poll taken in February which was the first to show a Santorum lead was done by Susquehanna, and he only led by 1 point. Susquehanna did the previous poll before that in December and Gingrich was up by 17 points. So you have two polls in the same month which has a 28 point difference in Santorum's lead. Hmmmm….. A little history lesson. Back in May of 2006 during Santorum's race with Bob Casey to retain his Senate seat Franklin & Marshall had Casey leading Santorum by five points which was a drop from an 11 point lead from February of 2006. Rasmussen that same month had Casey leading Santorum by 23 points. So there's the question of inaccuracy in the past. There's also the question of inaccuracy in the present. If you were to look at the other two polls done in March, one by Quinnipiac and one by Public Policy Polling you'd see that Santorum has a 14 point and 18 point lead respectively. Granted both were taken before Romney's win in the Illinois Primary and Santorum's win in the Louisiana Primary but it's doubtful Romney's win in Illinois would have made that much of an impact. So what to make of this? One I think some people who have been pushing Romney as the nominee are getting far too excited about one poll. Secondly, Franklin & Marshall's polling accuracy is in question. Thirdly is it really that surprising to see a race tighten as it gets closer? Franklin & Marshall point out that Romney leads in the east – that's his bread & butter – the urban areas. Those are the parts of the state which are more moderate. Yes, moderate voters and urban voters are coming home to roost with Romney like they have in every other contest we've seen. He still has a problem with conservatives and evangelicals. Anyway, I think its far too early to say Romney has a surge going in Pennsylvania based on one poll. Link to this post!      |
| Rand Paul to Keynote Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition Spring Event Posted: 28 Mar 2012 08:00 PM PDT
As a U.S. Senator, Rand Paul has vigorously defended life. He is an original sponsor of the Life at Conception Act, which would put Congress on record defining when life begins and overturn Roe v Wade. He has voted against funding for Planned Parenthood at every opportunity, and fought against the Obamacare mandates on religious institutions. Recently, Sen. Paul has formed an organization, RANDPAC, to promote and support candidates for office. With an objective to change the way that business is done in Washington, he is also a leader of the Tea Party movement in the U.S. Senate. Invitations to the May 11th event are also being extended to elected officials here in Iowa as well as Fox News contributor and Faith & Freedom Coalition Chairman, Ralph Reed. The event is set to take place at Point of Grace Church at 305 NE Dartmoor Drive in Waukee, Iowa from 5:30 p.m.-7:30 p.m. For any questions, contact the offices of the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition at 515-225-1515. Link to this post!      |
| Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli to Headline Iowa GOP Reagan Dinner Posted: 28 Mar 2012 02:30 PM PDT
Spiker said, "We are honored to have Attorney General Cuccinelli join us for our annual Lincoln Dinner this year. We recently passed the two-year anniversary of ObamaCare becoming law, and the Supreme Court has begun reviewing the constitutionality of the Democrats' healthcare mandate. Ken has been a leading opponent of this unconstitutional and destructive policy. We look forward to hearing Ken's insight on this very important issue." Cuccinelli was elected Attorney General of Virginia in 2009 and just announced a bid for Virginia's Governorship. At the CPAC Conference this year, he received the "Defender of the Constitution" award. He was the first Attorney General to file a lawsuit against ObamaCare when it was signed into law. He has been one of the most outspoken opponents of the law. The annual dinner will take place in Des Moines on May 5. For tickets, please contact the Iowa GOP at 515-282-8105 or visit www.iowagop.org. Link to this post!      |
| Biden’s Trip to Iowa Only Reminds Us of Broken Promises Posted: 28 Mar 2012 01:15 PM PDT
Iowans are sick and tired of the constant campaigning by Vice President Biden and President Obama. They want less rhetoric and more follow-through after three years of broken promises from the White House. Under Biden and Obama, Iowans have seen costs increase on everything from food to gasoline to health care premiums. Families across the state are worse off under this Administration. Poll after poll shows that Iowans are fed up and another campaign stop from Vice President Biden can't erase the fact that Iowans simply cannot afford four more years of President Obama or Vice President Biden. It's rather fitting that Biden would choose Iowa, a state that overwhelmingly disapproves of Obamacare, to campaign in as the unpopular bill gets grilled by the Supreme Court back in D.C. on the heels of its two year anniversary. But you won't hear Biden talk about his administration’s supposed signature accomplishment today because Obamacare has only increased costs for families, increased our debt and made it harder for job creators and Iowa manufacturers to stay in business. Bottom line, the last four years of Obama and Biden have been marked by broken promise after broken promise and nothing Vice President Biden says today will change that. A.J. Spiker is the chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa Link to this post!      |
| Posted: 28 Mar 2012 11:41 AM PDT  Trayvon Martin Well, I figure it’s about time to weigh in on the travesty and mess that is happening in Florida with the killing of Trayvon Martin. The whole thing has become blown up by an over zealous media pouring gasoline on the ever-burning flame of racial tension. The biggest tragedy in this whole thing is that yet another young man is now dead, followed closely by the treatment of George Zimmerman in the media and population…but things are not always as they appear or as we are told. New details are being released nearly every moment that are beginning to provide a much clearer picture of what happened back in February. Also, details about Trayvon and George themselves are coming to light – details everyone SHOULD pay attention to before coming to their own conclusions. Here are a few:
I’ve listened the 911 audio and there is something amiss with the way and reason Zimmerman decided to follow and potentially chase Trayvon. He should have let it go…just like the dispatcher told him to! Trayvon may have very well thought this guy was chasing him to cause him harm…and thus “defended” himself by fighting with George. Both of those things are not necessarily criminal. But, the reason we should not rush to judgement in cases like these, is that it takes time for the system to work; and although it’s not a perfect system, it’s about the best in the entire world – so let’s have a little bit of trust within it. Link to this post!      |
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