joi, 3 martie 2011

Caffeinated Thoughts

Caffeinated Thoughts


Governor Terry Branstad Appoints Eric Goranson to the Iowa State Board of Education

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 02:30 PM PST


imageCaffeinated Thoughts contributor (and my friend and coworker at American Principles Project) Eric Goranson was appointed by Iowa Governor Terry Branstad to the State Board of Education. Let me be the first to publicly congratulate him.  This is huge since he is a parent of kids enrolled in Christian school and a school choice advocate.  I don't know if he is the first in these circumstances to be appointed to the Board, but he's got to be the first one in 12 years or so.

Now he needs to be confirmed by the Senate.  No sweat! Smile

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Fox News Suspends Newt Gingrich & Rick Santorum Because of 2012 Interest

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 12:30 PM PST


Fox News announced that two of their political contributors – former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) and former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), are being suspended because they both have demonstrated that they both have had intentions for running for President in 2012.  They are being placed on leave for 60 days to contemplate a run.  Their contracts will be terminated on May 1 unless they announce they are not running.

The Los Angeles Times reports that if former Governors Sarah Palin (R-AK) and Mike Huckabee (R-AR) express similar signs Fox News will suspend them as well.  The Wall Street Journal reports that he'll announce the formation of a presidential exploratory committee on Thursday.  Politico reports that may be too soon due to different funding streams that he has.

Both Santorum and Gingrich will speak at the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition event this Monday.

I'm surprised that Fox News took this action so soon since neither men have formally announced though Gingrich is closer than Santorum to doing so.  The Salem Radio Network where Rick Santorum hosts the Friday edition of Bill Bennett's radio show feels the same.  Tom Tradup, Vice President of News & Talk Programming at Salem objected to them being singled out.  While I don't agree with the suspension, both Huckabee and Palin haven't been nearly as active as Santorum and Gingrich.

In a statement released this afternoon, Santorum said he appreciated the opportunity that he has had with Fox News Channel and Fox Business Network.  He said, "I share in their commitment to ensure news organizations provide balanced coverage of the issues of the day.  I intend to use the months ahead to continue my evaluation of a potential presidential run, and I will make an announcement on my final decision sometime in the coming months."

HT: Memeorandum

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Sarah Palin – Beware of the Iowa Focus Group

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 05:00 AM PST


imageFormer Governor Sarah Palin hasn't even decided to run.  We haven't even have had one vote cast, and we already have some writing the narrative that she is unelectable.  This isn't anything new for Governor Palin or for presidential politics for that matter.  We have seen a journalist spin a poll, and now we have a focus group.  Oh the dreaded focus group, they are such worthwhile sources of information.

Say I convened a sample group of six people – one farmer, one lawyer, one college student, one factory worker, one auto mechanic, and one doctor.  There were three guys and three girls.  They each liked different brands of pop (or soda if you are a friend from the south).  One liked Mountain Dew, one liked Dr. Pepper, one liked Sprite, another liked Sunkist, one liked Pepsi and yet another liked Coke because "it's the real thing" and she really would like to buy the world a Coke.

They were unanimous in their belief that Mr. Pibb tasted like carbonated prune juice.

Does that mean that a majority of people believe that Mr. Pibb tastes like carbonated prune juice?  No (I actually think it does, but I digress).  Is it newsworthy?  Hardly – it is just six people!

My hypothetical focus group is just as worthless as this focus group on the Iowa Caucus is.  You might have an interesting discussion, but do you really have worthwhile information?

Time will tell.  The only thing it tells me is that six people whom The Iowa Republican selected (I have no criteria on how they made their selection or who is considered an "activist") say she is unelectable.  Well I do know they said they were conservative activists and then they identify Connie Schmett as one of the members of the group.  While I wouldn't consider Connie and Kim Schmett flaming liberals I'm not sure conservative is the right word.  Republican certainly, conservative… well Kim Schmett didn't strike me as particularly conservative when he ran for Congress in 2008.  The couple since haven't done much to change my opinion.  Connie Schmett is an excellent fundraiser though.

The group also said that Mitt Romney is in trouble because of RomneyCare.  I happen to agree with this, but again it proves nothing.  It is the opinion of the six people in the room, some of whom may have never liked Palin (or Romney) anyway.  The Iowa Republican was asked to pull this focus group together for McClatchy Newspapers who happens to own Anchorage Daily News.  I'm sure there's no agenda whatsoever!  Because they *certainly didn't* demonstrate any type of agenda or bias while Governor Palin was in office.  While Kevin Hall and Craig Robinson may not have planned to contribute to a narrative, but McClatchy won't mind running with it.

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Song of the South: Huckabee Nearly Doubles Closest Competitor in Winthrop Poll

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 01:51 AM PST


Map of the Southern States

States Polled by Winthrop, Showing Huckabee Lead

In a new poll released by respected pollsters at Winthrop University, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is polling well ahead of the Republican field with 21.9% of likely Southern primary voters in 2012. States polled were Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.

The next highest candidate was former Georgia congressman and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich who is expected to announced his candidacy later this week and polled at 12.9%. Sarah Palin was third at 8.7%, with Mitt Romney coming in fifth at 6.9%, barely ahead of Tim Pawlenty. The two biggest surprises are fourth place finisher and North-Easterner, Chris Christie with 7.6% and sitting Governor of Alabama, Haley Barbour, who only got 1% of the vote. Texas native Ron Paul finished at 6%, while Rick Santorum didn’t break into the 1% range and Mitch Daniels was just under 3%. About 20% haven’t decided, yet.

Other questions by Winthrop showed that the economy was the number one issue not just for Republicans, but for all Southland voters.

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Santorum Encouraged by House Leadership for Defending Marriage

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 03:00 PM PST


Washington, DC – In response to the House Republican Leadership promising action to defend the Defense of Marriage Act, former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) issued the following statement:

"I am encouraged that House Speaker John Boehner and Majority Leader Eric Cantor have acknowledged that the House of Representatives has an obligation to defend the Defense of Marriage Act.  I look forward to Friday's announcement about what the House will do to ensure this law – that was passed with overwhelming support from Democrats and Republicans – will remain the law of the land," Santorum concluded.

Senator Santorum first made the suggestion that House leadership should consider appointing a special counsel last week.  An article in USA Today states, "… Santorum called on House Speaker John Boehner to appoint a counsel representing the House of Representatives to 'take up the cause and argue the cases' in court."

Politico also wrote about the issue, stating, "In a taped interview posted Monday, Boehner (R-Ohio) said the GOP-controlled House could appoint a special counsel to defend the law commonly known as DOMA, a suggestion first made by former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.).  'It's an option being considered. …' Boehner said during an appearance on The Christian Broadcasting Network. 'I'd be very surprised if the House didn't decide that they were going to defend law.'"

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Sarah Palin Denounces Obama’s DOMA Decision

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 02:30 PM PST


Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin gave a statement on President Barack Obama's decision to not defend DOMA via the National Organization for Marriage:

I have always believed that marriage is between one man and one woman. Like the majority of Americans, I support the Defense of Marriage Act and find it appalling that the Obama administration decided not to defend this federal law which was enacted with broad bipartisan support and signed into law by a Democrat president. It’s appalling, but not surprising that the President has flip-flopped on yet another issue from his stated position as a candidate to a seemingly opposite position once he was elected.

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Hugh Hewitt’s Townhall to Be New Official Home of All Polling

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 11:31 AM PST


For two months running, Townhall online news magazine and commentary site has been running an online poll for the GOP presidential nomination. Sarah Palin has won two months in a row. Ron Paul finished second.

Caffeinated Thoughts, at the end of 2010, ran a poll for Conservative of the Year. We made it clear that it was not just a presidential poll but open to any conservatives. I am pretty certain none of us here at CT took it too seriously. It is what our readers and those who found us on the internet thought. (Paul won that one, too.)

Last week I posted a parody mocking, not Ron Paul supporters, but those that think online polls or straw polls can give any indication of a candidate’s strength among the general populace.

Then along comes Townhall. Today I got an email. Two things I observed. First, this is what is found at the bottom of the “polling place”:

” Submitting your vote entitles you to receive conservative alerts from Townhall.com”

In other words, you must give an email address so that we can email you stuff. I don’t have any problem with the strategy, but it effects results of the poll. If folks don’t want emails from Townhall, don’t bother voting.

More importantly was this gem in the email:

“With rumors flying about potential candidates officially announcing, this could be a very exciting month for GOP presidential politics. Maybe some candidates are using this poll as a factor on whether they will run or not. It’s up to you to show your support to let them know that you want them to be the next President of the United States!”

I am not sure I would vote for any candidate who used “this poll as a factor on whether they will run or not”.   I would not want to belong to any club willing to have me as a member.

Straw polls aren’t much better.  Even the touted Ames Straw Poll doesn’t tell you much.  Romney won it in 2007.  McCain finished somewhere below Ron Paul.    That poll takes huge amounts of money just to compete.  First, it requires tickets in order to vote.   Campaigns often buy a huge amount of tickets to give away.   Second, rental spots for land, I understand, cost between $25,000 and $100,000 each, just to set up.  And if you are going to have roller coasters, merry-go-rounds, and ferris wheels, you’ll need that much land.  If it seems more like a circus than a way to choose a president, it is.

Just for the record, I’d say the same thing if Mike Huckabee won a straw poll or online poll.

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Neither Home Mortgage nor Fox News Contract Will Keep Mike Huckabee from His Appointed Rounds

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 09:47 AM PST


Yesterday, I had opportunity for a sit down interview with Governor Mike Huckabee during the bus tour for his book, A Simple Government. He also offered a press avail at book signings in Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, Iowa.  Governor Huckabee was his usual personable self, taking a moment to chat with each person passing through the line or have his picture taken with them.[1]

I asked the governor to address those who say the mortgage payment on a home he is building in Florida will make it impossible to run for president in 2012.  Governor Huckabee was transparent in his answer.   First, it is not really a mortgage, but rather a contract to build a home.  Privately built homes aren't ready for a mortgage until they are appraised, which can't happen until after they are a built.  Second, the land appraises higher than his purchase price, and the construction contract was also entered into at below current market rates, suggesting that if he decided to make a run for president this summer he could still sell off the property at a significant profit.  No, a mortgage payment won't stop him from running for president.

Besides disclosing things that were really none of my business, he was also candid about his dream home.  Anybody would be foolish to give it up on a whim, he says.[2] His decision is a matter of prayer and determining by Providence what God would have him (and by extension, his family) do[3].  Will he have the support and backing needed to possibly win?

I also asked him about his Fox News contract.   Again, he was particularly honest.  First, he is free from his Fox contract, if and when he announces, even informally, that he is a candidate for any nation-wide office[4].  He must walk off the set of his Fox News show Huckabee an unemployed man and would have to immediately give up his 3-times-daily ABC News radio show.

Huckabee listed several practical reasons why waiting until summer is best.  Why would anyone who might want to run for president (or have an impact on the country) give up an opportunity to freely convey his views until the last possible moment?  Should he trade that platform for a few extra speaking engagements? Other than getting to share the spotlight in a debate with twelve other candidates (and get maybe five minutes to answer three questions of a moderator's choosing[5]) what advantage is there in that?

He expanded on this idea both in private and in a public press conference.  Why would a boxer fight a 15-round fight when he could win as easily in a 10-round fight? The process in the Republican party is much different than the 2008 season.  Last time, because of winner-take-all rules in the GOP, the die was virtually cast after the first four or five primary and caucus nights.   This time proportional apportionment will likely mean a much longer campaign season. Remember the Clinton and Obama race?  Both the candidates and the people wear themselves out.  The masses of voters don't really care when you get in, as long as you spend time with them[6] [7].  They only care that you show up and care about their questions and concerns.  Last time, pundits and political insiders underestimated his campaign, Huckabee says.  He will start off with name recognition this time.   No one appears too antsy to get in.  If he runs, it will be on his time schedule, not theirs.

Video from the book signings:


[1] Among those getting their pictures taken was a family competing with the Duggers for size, and another lady traveling with a cutout doll (see videos above)

[2] Let alone the silly notion that Huckabee would give it up for a grudge match against Mitt Romney.

[3] Without God's blessing, any decision is a fool's errand (ds).

[4] This would not apply to a Senate run, for example, but would apply if he accepted a request to be on the ticket as a Vice-Presidential candidate.

[5] This is coming from a politician most analysts think is an outstanding debater (ds).

[6] Especially in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina and Florida, if the current GOP calendar holds up.

[7] In the author's opinion, Fred Thompson failed in proving he had "fire-in-the belly", not that he started too late.  Also, his timing was bad in that he announced on the day of a debate that he refused to participate in. It made him look elitist.  Rudy Giuliani, on the other hand, didn't announce late, but made the mistake of thinking he could pass up the first three states and wait until Florida to campaign, but he missed all the publicity procured by the other candidates by running in the early states: out of sight, out of mind.

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President Barack Obama names Iowa Governor Terry Branstad Co-Chair of Council of Governors

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 09:00 AM PST


(DES MOINES) – President Barack Obama today appointed Iowa Governor Terry E. Branstad as Co-Chairman of the Council of Governors.

The Council of Governors was established by the National Defense Authorization Act in 2008 to strengthen further partnership between the Federal and State governments as it pertains to national security. The council is balanced by political party and serves the nation as a whole. The governors serve two year terms and are appointed by the President. The President designates two members of different political affiliations to serve as co-chairs of the Council.

"I am both humbled and honored to have been named Co-Chairman of the Council of Governors by President Barack Obama," said Branstad. "I look forward to working with the nine other governors on the board to provide feedback, suggestions and advice on matters of homeland security, National Guard and emergency response coordination."

The Council of Governors, which had its first meeting today in conjunction with the National Governors Association, is a premier opportunity for governors to serve at a national level. Branstad will work with General Tim Orr on matters pertaining to the Council of Governors, weaving in Orr's knowledge of Iowa's Homeland Security and Emergency Management efforts.

"I am pleased to have the opportunity to work on finding solutions that enhance the security of our country," Branstad said. "Iowa has the highest level of National Guard deployment since World War II, and I am pleased to have a seat at the table to advocate on their behalf."

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Iowa Core Curriculum Flunks History

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 06:30 AM PST


The Thomas B. Fordham Institute issued a State of the State report on U.S. History standards.  They give Iowa an F along with 28 other states that got Ds or Fs.  South Carolina was the only state to receive an A.

About Iowa's Core Curriculum they note in their evaluation:

"The history component of social studies," Iowa's core curriculum document declares, aims to "build upon a foundation of historical knowledge," in order to "describe the relationship between historical facts, concepts, and generalizations. History draws upon cause and effect relationships within multiple social narratives to help explain complex human interactions. Understanding the past provides context for the present and implications for the future."

If, however, Diogenes searched with his lamp through the Iowa standards for an honest attempt to create this substantive "foundation" he would discover a startling fact: There is no history whatsoever in the Iowa "core curriculum."

Instead, the state offers little more than a series of vapid social studies concepts and skills. Students are expected to understand these concepts without having to bother with historical information…

…The so-called "core curriculum" contains neither core nor curriculum. No subject matter is clearly assigned to any grade, resulting in no measurable grade-specific levels of substance and/or rigor. The standards do not even make a meaningful distinction among American, world, and other histories. As a result, there is no Iowa U.S. history curriculum to assess—or indeed any historical curriculum at all—and the state's standards cannot be awarded more than a zero out of seven for Content and Rigor.

Ouch.  This complements what American Principles Project found in their Innocence Report on the Iowa Core Curriculum.  In the executive summary they wrote:

The Political Science and Civic Literacy Core Curriculum omits some key concepts and incorrectly or ambiguously describes others.  It suggests an ascendency of governments that do not reflect the founding documents and law of the United States.  Its discussion of "rights" ignores the natural law basis of our fundamental rights and consequently fails to present them in the strength with which the American law and tradition holds them.  Moreover, the directive to discuss the Bill of Rights shows no awareness of the need for guidance in discussion of controversial topics like privacy rights, gun ownership, free speech, and the Establishment and Free Exercise clauses.  These opportunities for political bias continue in the examination of America's role in global affairs…

…The History Curriculum has similar problems of relativism and openings for bias.  With little discussion as to scope or basic historical literacy, it instead focuses on analysis of culture, process, and transition.  Its directives to compare "minority" and "dominant" groups are a political minefield. (emphasis mine)

Where we are headed as a state and nation has much to do (among other problems) with a lack of knowledge about our past.  Iowa is not positioned currently to improve upon the current historical illiteracy prevalent with our state's public school student population.

Originally posted at American Principles in Action.

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